According to Jonathan Mercer, the worst reason to get involved is to preserve our “credibility”:
The debate about what to do in Syria has been sidetracked by discussions of credibility and reputation. But both logic and evidence prove that reputations are mostly imaginary. Obama should not let fears that others might think him irresolute drive him to disaster.
If Assad thinks Obama is irresolute, that makes Assad a total dumbass (strategically speaking), which means he’s even less of a threat to our national interests than we thought. Mercer:
Say that Assad interprets Obamas backing down on his red line remark as irresolute and that Assads reasoning stops there. He might decide that Obama will always be irresolute in the future and that Obama will play the second round of the game as if the first round had not happened. Neither the political context nor the interests at stake are important. In this case Assad, perhaps like McCain, is rather simple-minded when it comes to strategy.
And if Assad is not as dumb as McCain?
Now, if Assad is a master strategist and game theory devotee, he might engage in three rounds of reasoning. In this case, Assad would believe that Obama is actually more likely to bluff because Obama thinks that Assad thinks that Obama is less likely to bluff. Keeping the logic straight is difficult, but it is also irrelevant: no one knows how many rounds the game will go on, for there is no logical place to stop.
(Btw, doesn’t that remind you of this scene from “The Princess Bride”?) Mercer’s conclusion:
Those who argue that reputation and credibility matter are depending on strategists to be simple-minded, illogical, and blissfully unaware of recursion. And if Assad is illogical, then calibrating U.S. foreign policy to elicit particular responses from him is pointless. The same goes for other adversaries. No one can know what the North Korean leadership will make of U.S. behavior in Syria. They might think that Obama has no credibility, that he is, in fact, resolute, or that he is driven by other U.S. interests. Whatever conclusion they come to will be driven by their own beliefs and interests.
Bad Reputation: Has Obama Blown His Credibility — And Syria? – Foreign Affairs